* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 05/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 41 46 50 49 48 46 46 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 41 46 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 28 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 28 39 27 28 32 29 30 24 20 23 30 28 26 SHEAR DIR 263 260 238 215 226 252 250 288 268 286 270 284 279 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.0 25.4 24.8 24.2 25.0 24.6 24.4 23.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 113 109 105 109 105 100 105 101 99 93 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 102 99 94 96 94 89 91 87 85 80 76 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.7 -57.2 -56.4 -56.9 -58.2 -57.8 -58.3 -58.2 -58.4 -58.0 -57.8 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 4 3 2 4 1 4 1 6 2 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 72 72 64 51 55 54 54 51 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 10 13 11 8 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 66 67 101 98 59 35 17 12 -6 -1 -43 -21 200 MB DIV 78 68 81 137 88 47 -3 29 -1 -19 -16 -9 6 LAND (KM) 140 265 390 431 396 284 85 -82 -100 -114 -167 -184 -260 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.6 24.8 26.0 27.2 28.8 29.7 30.6 31.3 31.7 31.9 32.0 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 75.8 75.6 75.9 76.1 77.7 80.3 83.4 85.8 87.7 89.3 90.6 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 11 13 12 10 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 16. 21. 25. 24. 23. 21. 21. 18. 18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY