* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 05/23/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 47 50 54 54 57 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 SHEAR (KT) 16 10 9 11 13 14 12 10 15 8 20 16 25 SHEAR DIR 261 268 218 186 164 161 163 184 185 170 184 195 210 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 23.9 21.2 19.5 18.2 17.1 16.0 14.6 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 115 115 114 96 82 76 72 70 69 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 99 99 98 84 73 69 66 65 64 63 62 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -56.3 -56.4 -55.9 -56.6 -56.5 -56.7 -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -58.2 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 7 3 8 3 7 0 7 0 4 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 68 69 73 69 74 71 76 68 73 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 15 14 12 12 12 11 10 7 7 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 78 69 69 64 61 52 67 15 56 52 88 92 54 200 MB DIV 40 6 19 42 55 11 54 11 24 29 57 4 53 LAND (KM) 213 143 84 66 -22 -192 -336 -466 -605 -739 -885 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.6 32.1 33.4 34.4 35.5 36.6 38.0 39.4 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 88.1 88.4 88.7 89.0 89.7 90.6 91.6 92.4 93.0 93.0 92.0 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 25. 29. 29. 32. 33. 35. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/23/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/23/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY