* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 05/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 50 54 57 58 60 60 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 33 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 14 11 15 15 18 21 20 39 SHEAR DIR 262 213 195 182 166 160 185 152 194 172 198 209 246 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.0 24.9 21.8 19.8 18.2 17.1 16.0 14.3 11.3 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 116 113 104 85 77 72 70 69 67 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 100 97 89 75 70 67 65 64 64 62 62 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.7 -56.3 -55.7 -56.5 -56.7 -56.5 -57.2 -57.5 -57.7 -57.9 -58.5 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 7 7 4 7 4 5 0 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 68 69 69 70 71 69 68 67 66 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 15 15 13 14 13 11 11 8 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 66 61 53 53 17 56 57 74 43 85 70 200 MB DIV 17 26 37 66 39 61 16 33 45 3 40 37 4 LAND (KM) 103 43 28 -47 -128 -292 -439 -602 -737 -877 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.3 30.0 30.8 31.5 33.0 34.2 35.5 36.7 38.0 39.5 40.9 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.8 89.1 89.4 89.7 90.6 91.4 92.3 92.6 92.7 91.8 90.3 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. 27. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY