* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 05/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 42 46 47 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 42 44 44 45 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 37 41 44 45 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 9 19 14 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 351 305 285 304 330 341 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 22.0 21.2 20.0 18.2 13.3 8.1 5.0 2.6 7.1 10.3 10.5 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 88 87 84 81 76 69 67 67 66 65 65 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 77 76 74 71 67 66 66 N/A 64 63 62 61 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -58.1 -58.4 -58.3 -58.0 -58.2 -58.2 -57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 75 72 71 74 75 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 0 18 20 18 14 67 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 -7 -10 24 13 -2 5 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 243 295 355 329 302 169 77 169 571 889 1125 1238 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.0 36.9 37.9 38.8 40.8 43.4 46.4 48.7 49.6 49.9 49.6 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 73.2 72.3 70.9 69.4 66.0 61.8 56.6 50.7 45.3 40.9 37.6 36.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 15 16 18 22 23 21 16 12 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 17. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 05/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 05/28/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY