* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012009 05/29/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 37 38 41 40 36 30 26 22 15 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 37 38 41 40 36 30 26 22 15 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 32 30 29 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 19 15 19 21 17 37 55 76 41 29 34 N/A SHEAR DIR 290 320 312 314 331 323 308 305 317 299 272 247 N/A SST (C) 21.5 20.9 20.9 18.7 16.6 14.5 8.4 8.0 12.7 10.2 9.2 9.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 84 85 79 75 71 67 66 69 67 67 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 76 77 74 71 68 66 65 66 65 65 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -58.2 -58.4 -58.5 -58.5 -58.9 -59.1 -58.8 -56.9 -55.0 -56.8 -59.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 75 74 79 76 60 55 55 49 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 7 6 5 5 7 10 15 15 14 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -23 -26 -30 -29 -33 -25 -24 -63 -50 -68 -83 N/A 200 MB DIV 46 0 -32 10 3 1 9 -33 -53 -13 -3 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 459 470 490 447 459 454 337 618 925 1248 1433 1068 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 38.5 39.1 40.1 41.1 42.7 44.5 46.1 47.9 49.7 51.7 54.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.6 66.9 65.1 62.6 60.1 54.9 50.1 45.0 40.4 35.9 31.2 26.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 18 22 21 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. 0. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 9. 3. -2. -3. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 10. 6. 0. -4. -8. -15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY