* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 05/30/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 22 22 23 25 26 27 28 28 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 22 22 23 25 26 27 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 16 16 16 15 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 14 14 10 14 17 5 11 13 17 17 SHEAR DIR 282 288 277 255 259 263 262 286 280 219 196 190 186 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 155 154 153 154 152 150 144 140 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 65 64 67 65 67 62 59 58 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 3 1 1 -12 -15 -12 -11 -10 -10 -14 -33 200 MB DIV 91 93 89 77 84 107 69 64 24 7 27 40 19 LAND (KM) 732 719 704 692 681 713 762 817 874 943 1008 1064 1099 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.8 97.6 98.5 99.3 101.1 102.9 104.8 106.9 108.9 110.9 112.5 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 38 34 38 38 37 35 25 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 05/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 05/30/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY