* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 05/31/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 21 24 26 28 32 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 21 24 26 28 32 32 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 20 20 22 22 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 16 17 17 5 1 1 2 4 10 19 SHEAR DIR 255 261 288 278 292 328 25 296 171 234 265 211 238 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 153 153 152 152 152 149 146 144 138 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 63 66 65 66 65 63 60 60 54 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -9 -14 -17 -14 -18 -12 -21 -21 -19 -15 -29 -42 200 MB DIV 69 59 54 16 2 17 3 -30 -7 8 20 63 31 LAND (KM) 717 715 719 740 765 821 883 938 1021 1090 1187 1240 1261 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.8 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.1 99.9 100.8 101.6 103.3 105.2 107.0 109.0 110.8 112.8 115.0 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 36 34 32 34 33 37 35 28 23 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -1. 1. 3. 7. 7. 5. 2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 05/31/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 05/31/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED