* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 39 49 61 69 79 77 83 82 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 39 49 61 69 79 77 83 82 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 30 35 42 48 53 57 61 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 4 2 1 5 10 13 17 11 12 10 SHEAR DIR 120 121 134 108 116 117 15 76 88 110 100 89 58 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 150 152 153 154 152 148 146 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -54.0 -53.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 58 56 56 57 61 63 66 68 67 69 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 5 5 7 8 14 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 4 1 0 5 2 8 27 36 29 4 -6 200 MB DIV 122 102 68 23 -14 -5 1 67 82 105 76 58 57 LAND (KM) 1931 1945 1960 1991 2023 2094 2172 2266 2382 2487 2558 2623 2667 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.4 121.7 122.2 122.6 123.7 124.9 126.3 127.8 129.3 130.4 131.3 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 42 41 39 36 38 32 36 32 27 26 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 12. 8. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 41. 49. 59. 57. 63. 62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/08/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY