* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 35 36 35 31 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 35 36 35 31 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 5 3 3 5 9 15 18 18 21 18 SHEAR DIR 6 41 31 38 69 289 260 243 234 212 220 216 223 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.6 25.5 24.3 23.3 22.6 21.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 147 145 138 128 117 104 94 86 78 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 62 62 61 61 54 45 40 35 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -17 -24 -38 -49 -46 -42 -33 -25 -23 -37 -33 -35 200 MB DIV 52 46 34 28 49 69 31 33 6 1 -3 -21 -5 LAND (KM) 1533 1542 1555 1561 1572 1566 1532 1459 1342 1230 1147 1054 948 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.7 14.8 16.1 17.6 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.1 118.8 119.6 120.3 121.5 122.4 122.8 122.7 122.4 122.4 122.5 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 52 47 45 38 24 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 15. 11. 5. 0. -6. -11. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY