* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882009 06/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 84 69 54 39 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 84 69 54 40 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 82 74 55 35 29 28 29 30 30 36 41 SHEAR (KT) 57 56 57 63 61 51 55 74 92 37 17 8 5 SHEAR DIR 318 323 321 322 327 296 287 289 288 291 307 281 340 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 25.9 21.4 17.5 11.5 11.3 7.9 7.0 5.3 2.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 120 114 86 77 71 71 69 68 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 105 106 100 79 73 70 70 68 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -56.7 -57.3 -56.4 -56.0 -55.5 -54.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 16 18 13 10 16 3 7 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 27 28 27 31 32 38 53 47 40 42 54 51 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -63 -86 -71 -41 -73 -45 -30 7 -21 -20 -38 -49 200 MB DIV -28 -52 -52 -24 -32 -63 8 -17 0 -42 -39 -34 -16 LAND (KM) 280 246 156 38 -82 -352 -688 -967 -553 -290 -108 101 147 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.1 32.7 36.1 39.4 42.6 45.2 47.4 49.3 50.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 93.1 94.0 94.7 95.3 95.5 93.0 87.6 80.1 73.1 66.4 59.8 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 16 23 29 31 27 25 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 858 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -19. -30. -41. -49. -56. -60. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -9. -21. -33. -43. -52. -55. -56. -59. -54. -49. -44. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -26. -41. -56. -77. -90. -99.-111.-111.-107.-102. -97. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882009 TEST 06/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 43.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882009 TEST 06/12/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY