* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP882009 06/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 42 49 55 52 52 34 16 14 20 23 32 26 14 SHEAR DIR 284 272 270 261 248 244 320 357 335 296 330 32 43 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 111 114 117 119 121 123 126 127 123 114 105 100 97 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.9 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 15 17 17 18 20 24 26 30 35 39 39 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -36 -37 -39 -34 -59 -94 -101 -91 -87 -94 -107 -95 200 MB DIV -50 -26 8 14 8 -4 -32 -7 5 6 -74 -53 -48 LAND (KM) 734 581 429 277 152 111 122 437 791 1113 1361 1545 1707 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.6 20.0 20.4 22.0 23.3 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.5 26.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.3 150.7 152.2 153.7 156.7 159.7 163.2 166.8 169.9 172.3 174.1 175.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 16 13 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -8. -14. -20. -24. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -34. -37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP882009 INVEST 06/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882009 INVEST 06/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY