* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP862009 06/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 34 30 26 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 34 30 26 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 39 37 34 28 24 22 21 20 18 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 49 48 49 48 37 16 7 5 6 22 28 30 20 SHEAR DIR 281 270 258 250 240 245 198 347 314 315 350 10 22 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.9 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.4 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 118 119 120 121 125 122 113 102 95 90 88 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.7 -56.3 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 14 15 16 19 20 23 28 29 37 41 44 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -32 -29 -43 -84 -103 -108 -99 -81 -93 -106 -124 200 MB DIV -8 9 4 -4 -14 -32 -22 16 13 19 -47 -58 -12 LAND (KM) 607 457 315 219 159 169 283 593 901 1144 1280 1433 1582 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.0 21.7 23.2 24.4 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 149.0 150.5 151.9 153.4 154.8 157.7 161.0 164.3 167.4 169.7 170.9 172.4 174.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 13 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -18. -23. -33. -41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP862009 INVEST 06/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 44.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP862009 INVEST 06/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED