* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 06/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 25 24 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 28 28 25 22 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 24 25 24 23 24 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 17 18 20 17 18 15 19 16 11 23 SHEAR DIR 173 185 173 180 183 162 174 179 172 153 201 209 245 SST (C) 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.7 27.0 28.5 29.3 29.7 29.6 28.4 25.7 24.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 139 131 130 133 148 155 159 159 147 119 107 96 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 8 6 10 5 7 1 5 0 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 68 68 62 53 46 41 37 37 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 23 36 48 54 66 74 50 61 45 48 34 33 200 MB DIV 60 37 57 47 25 26 14 24 1 30 15 2 4 LAND (KM) 399 353 330 292 234 120 30 -14 33 45 20 0 -10 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.3 27.3 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.7 108.8 108.5 108.2 107.7 107.5 107.7 108.6 109.8 111.2 112.2 113.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 5 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 25 21 31 55 42 58 83 68 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 19. 25. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -1. -4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 06/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 06/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY