* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 06/21/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 62 65 63 59 57 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 62 65 63 59 57 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 47 47 44 40 35 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 13 9 7 2 5 4 10 7 10 3 8 SHEAR DIR 360 3 22 10 324 219 143 147 118 120 110 110 98 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.2 29.7 29.1 28.2 27.1 25.6 24.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 170 166 161 155 146 134 119 107 98 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 8 9 6 7 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 85 82 80 79 80 73 70 67 66 64 63 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 96 111 120 129 143 142 105 87 50 43 38 34 200 MB DIV 89 75 76 89 92 69 56 36 36 -7 -3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 180 172 164 150 137 137 95 112 159 269 277 298 434 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.4 99.9 100.4 100.9 102.2 103.5 105.0 106.6 108.2 110.0 111.8 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 58 53 49 47 20 41 28 21 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 33. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 31. 37. 40. 38. 34. 32. 27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 06/21/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 6.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 06/21/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY