* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/27/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 37 42 49 53 58 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 29 34 40 46 50 56 58 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 28 31 36 41 46 51 56 60 62 SHEAR (KT) 11 4 8 2 4 6 10 4 12 9 18 21 22 SHEAR DIR 278 135 161 226 64 205 335 313 338 283 320 274 311 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 137 135 132 130 131 131 132 133 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 127 123 119 114 111 112 114 115 117 118 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 11 10 12 11 13 11 13 12 14 11 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 62 62 57 60 55 58 52 55 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -20 -11 -6 -6 3 14 18 25 37 32 25 18 200 MB DIV 6 19 3 -6 5 -5 8 6 18 25 9 17 13 LAND (KM) 133 74 -3 -39 11 80 110 92 68 71 108 204 326 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.9 22.3 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.7 87.1 87.6 88.0 88.6 88.9 89.0 89.3 89.8 90.7 91.7 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 7 5 3 1 1 2 3 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 63 58 24 40 0 3 5 4 3 3 3 21 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 28. 33. 36. 38. 38. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/27/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/27/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY