* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 07/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 40 42 42 38 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 40 42 42 38 34 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 31 29 27 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 11 9 4 10 12 11 8 13 12 10 8 SHEAR DIR 344 356 2 360 4 16 42 84 85 99 109 127 222 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.8 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 145 149 147 141 132 118 109 102 99 94 88 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 8 7 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 81 77 78 81 78 79 75 71 66 62 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 7 -14 -16 -17 -9 -7 -3 4 21 19 15 5 200 MB DIV 56 50 37 40 27 42 -5 20 35 0 10 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 508 476 463 502 568 650 709 822 911 986 1076 1116 1161 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 107.9 107.1 108.3 109.5 111.8 114.1 116.2 118.2 119.9 121.4 122.8 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 9 2 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 11 27 19 27 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 17. 17. 13. 9. 7. 4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 07/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 07/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY