* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 48 48 45 40 34 28 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 48 48 45 40 34 28 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 44 45 43 38 33 29 25 22 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 9 13 14 11 12 12 16 19 21 27 SHEAR DIR 31 33 59 82 91 95 98 143 199 205 234 205 202 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.3 25.4 24.3 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 135 127 117 105 98 97 98 96 92 91 88 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 80 77 77 74 67 63 62 57 57 58 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 10 10 11 29 29 42 29 37 27 28 11 200 MB DIV 54 53 62 39 31 21 0 -4 1 6 2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 668 656 658 693 744 816 860 943 1043 1121 1167 1254 1345 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.6 113.4 114.5 115.5 117.3 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.4 123.5 124.9 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 5. -1. -7. -14. -19. -24. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/06/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY