* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 46 45 43 38 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 46 45 43 38 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 45 43 37 31 26 23 21 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 10 13 14 13 11 8 6 10 15 24 31 39 SHEAR DIR 39 46 68 81 84 92 141 173 198 211 196 190 190 SST (C) 26.4 25.6 24.8 24.3 23.8 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 119 111 105 100 94 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 74 75 71 68 66 63 59 54 51 43 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 9 8 6 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 27 20 22 28 36 35 31 17 16 2 5 200 MB DIV 26 9 0 24 40 -18 22 12 7 -5 0 -4 0 LAND (KM) 665 702 743 763 794 855 955 1028 1081 1145 1229 1313 1429 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.0 115.9 116.8 117.6 118.9 120.3 121.4 122.3 123.3 124.5 125.7 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -32. -39. -47. -53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY