* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/08/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 30 27 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 12 14 7 8 14 26 33 39 35 N/A SHEAR DIR 68 72 73 90 108 149 194 217 192 191 190 196 N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.0 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 91 90 88 88 87 82 78 75 73 72 79 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 69 67 65 60 55 52 49 40 33 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 14 15 13 24 31 27 31 14 2 -5 N/A 200 MB DIV 0 4 6 1 11 23 27 22 17 15 20 22 N/A LAND (KM) 732 762 798 830 856 880 929 988 1089 1209 1283 1438 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.0 24.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.0 121.3 122.5 123.7 125.1 126.6 127.7 129.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -16. -24. -30. -35. -41. -48. -57. -63. -66. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/08/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY