* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 11 12 10 18 25 25 29 25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 112 125 135 155 231 202 192 200 197 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.2 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.0 22.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 92 90 88 86 83 81 81 82 80 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 59 62 56 55 49 46 41 37 29 24 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 12 11 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 30 24 26 46 31 42 29 20 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 11 21 31 29 51 -4 9 5 -16 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 924 948 972 1004 1041 1142 1248 1387 1513 1558 1707 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.2 23.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.5 123.2 124.8 126.3 128.0 129.8 131.1 132.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -31. -38. -46. -54. -56. -56. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY