* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP872009 07/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 31 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 49 53 55 58 59 70 67 63 62 57 47 46 50 SHEAR DIR 245 245 244 243 245 236 251 256 259 253 262 269 268 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 111 111 112 114 115 114 115 116 117 119 121 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 22 22 25 23 24 26 27 28 36 39 41 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -5 -9 -13 -7 -13 -8 200 MB DIV -1 7 8 37 43 29 38 18 7 0 0 1 -22 LAND (KM) 670 591 513 446 380 260 189 159 153 173 139 113 67 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 149.2 149.9 150.6 151.2 152.5 153.8 154.9 155.8 156.7 157.6 158.5 159.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -13. -24. -38. -52. -63. -68. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -5. -16. -29. -43. -57. -66. -69. -71. -72. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP872009 INVEST 07/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP872009 INVEST 07/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY