* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 07/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 59 63 64 66 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 59 63 64 66 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 35 41 47 52 57 63 69 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 3 1 4 5 9 3 5 4 6 SHEAR DIR 293 302 297 297 12 140 154 171 112 168 103 360 25 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 154 154 154 152 149 149 147 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 63 67 65 66 65 68 60 58 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -26 -28 -26 -19 -8 3 14 4 9 11 16 200 MB DIV 55 34 18 27 45 16 15 52 60 34 30 27 -2 LAND (KM) 1170 1232 1300 1371 1446 1604 1722 1849 1976 2067 2189 2325 2439 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.3 11.6 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.2 112.1 113.1 114.1 116.1 118.3 120.7 123.1 125.3 127.4 129.4 131.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 44 49 59 69 63 61 53 49 36 30 31 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 34. 38. 39. 41. 43. 44. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 07/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 07/10/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY