* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042009 07/10/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 51 59 66 68 69 66 61 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 51 59 66 68 69 66 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 43 50 58 65 69 70 67 63 SHEAR (KT) 2 6 4 3 1 8 4 6 4 5 4 6 12 SHEAR DIR 236 304 345 21 124 129 112 115 166 166 249 239 279 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 28.3 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 156 156 156 149 148 149 143 142 141 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 63 61 61 56 60 54 53 49 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -28 -28 -26 -32 -38 -36 -31 -31 -22 -15 -6 5 200 MB DIV 23 20 24 29 0 26 21 37 45 22 6 -25 -20 LAND (KM) 1297 1353 1414 1495 1547 1656 1777 1897 2034 2194 2348 2352 2094 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.3 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.3 116.4 118.8 121.3 123.7 126.2 128.7 131.2 133.7 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 60 67 63 63 61 48 35 33 35 27 26 28 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 29. 36. 38. 39. 36. 31. 27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 FOUR 07/10/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 FOUR 07/10/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY