* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/13/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 44 45 48 51 53 53 50 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 44 45 48 51 53 53 50 45 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 40 39 39 41 43 46 48 49 49 46 42 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 4 6 10 8 11 10 12 17 24 26 SHEAR DIR 23 23 7 3 13 349 336 329 334 310 272 286 285 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 148 145 147 149 147 141 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 59 61 57 58 57 56 49 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 1 6 9 12 2 7 4 0 -15 -10 -14 200 MB DIV 5 10 10 7 -2 -31 -14 -7 -14 -14 -20 -36 -42 LAND (KM) 1925 2010 2087 2165 2247 2401 2567 2436 2220 1990 1771 1518 1257 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.8 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.5 124.7 126.0 127.2 129.4 131.6 133.8 135.8 137.9 139.9 142.4 145.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 34 34 31 28 25 25 37 33 24 12 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY