* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 62 62 60 60 58 57 54 49 46 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 62 62 60 60 58 57 54 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 62 63 65 65 64 63 63 61 57 51 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 11 14 8 9 9 20 27 28 SHEAR DIR 333 345 1 352 348 311 336 355 320 298 294 295 300 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 147 151 151 150 147 145 142 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 62 59 61 60 64 60 54 50 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 25 22 16 12 -1 -16 -14 -18 -9 -3 6 200 MB DIV 2 -22 -31 -45 -42 -12 -3 -7 -20 -48 -39 -30 -17 LAND (KM) 2210 2282 2357 2428 2503 2648 2446 2226 2020 1797 1562 1303 1090 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.5 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.7 127.8 128.9 130.0 132.1 134.0 136.1 138.2 140.4 142.8 145.9 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 28 26 25 25 38 38 34 26 25 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY