* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 49 54 54 50 43 36 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 49 54 54 50 43 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 37 37 34 30 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 7 7 6 5 2 4 2 2 11 11 18 SHEAR DIR 316 308 289 277 266 223 209 115 12 293 266 273 259 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.5 24.5 23.5 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 151 151 152 147 135 119 109 99 92 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 77 77 76 73 70 63 61 58 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 12 10 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 12 8 9 17 22 23 11 12 -2 -9 -21 200 MB DIV 92 106 95 70 60 55 33 34 4 -1 -3 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 922 939 966 1004 1049 1073 1088 1149 1220 1341 1451 1584 1755 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.1 15.2 16.3 17.4 18.6 19.7 20.9 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.7 112.5 114.2 116.4 118.6 121.0 123.5 126.2 128.7 131.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 57 52 45 41 35 35 30 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 24. 29. 29. 25. 18. 11. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY