* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 70 66 64 61 57 53 49 46 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 80 74 70 66 64 61 57 53 49 46 45 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 69 65 61 56 53 51 49 46 43 40 36 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 8 6 8 9 10 19 20 14 12 15 SHEAR DIR 298 310 326 345 323 339 351 345 349 355 319 303 293 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 146 147 149 148 146 145 142 140 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 64 66 63 60 54 53 50 48 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -24 -25 -17 -13 -19 -13 -13 5 6 21 16 21 200 MB DIV -17 -4 -13 -23 -31 -26 -60 -17 -27 -29 -35 -28 -13 LAND (KM) 2424 2460 2497 2557 2595 2382 2166 1899 1617 1347 1104 896 775 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.3 129.9 130.5 131.4 132.3 134.3 136.3 138.9 141.9 144.9 147.9 151.1 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 10 10 11 14 15 15 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 27 25 28 39 34 25 28 32 26 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. -34. -35. -38. -41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY