* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052009 07/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 43 37 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 43 37 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 39 39 37 33 29 25 21 18 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 5 0 6 9 10 18 24 40 42 44 SHEAR DIR 303 291 256 270 237 275 286 282 282 274 283 276 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.8 25.9 24.6 23.7 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 141 133 124 111 101 97 96 97 98 102 106 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 66 65 58 53 42 46 36 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 14 11 12 10 9 8 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 52 67 71 60 37 40 19 20 10 26 37 43 15 200 MB DIV 43 74 93 60 20 3 -20 -20 7 33 16 24 -18 LAND (KM) 1067 1059 1068 1087 1095 1224 1396 1583 1810 2024 1774 1497 1277 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.6 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.3 21.7 21.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.1 117.1 118.3 119.4 122.1 125.3 128.2 131.2 134.4 137.9 140.6 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 15 16 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 37 24 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -6. -9. -9. -11. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 2. -3. -11. -18. -26. -27. -35. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 DOLORES 07/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 DOLORES 07/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY