* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 45 38 34 32 31 31 32 34 33 34 36 38 V (KT) LAND 55 45 38 34 32 31 31 32 34 33 34 36 38 V (KT) LGE mod 55 44 37 33 30 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 8 6 10 8 8 12 18 15 11 11 7 SHEAR DIR 311 322 323 296 307 349 354 346 344 335 352 302 257 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 147 148 150 150 148 146 144 140 142 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 65 67 66 62 56 54 52 49 46 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -20 -12 -11 -15 -14 -17 -12 6 8 14 12 16 200 MB DIV 5 -9 -17 -30 -26 -65 -38 -32 -28 -9 -23 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 2519 2569 2621 2559 2460 2235 1983 1718 1455 1233 1046 874 789 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.4 131.2 131.9 132.8 133.7 135.8 138.3 141.0 143.8 146.5 149.3 152.3 155.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 14 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 33 39 37 30 28 31 29 37 42 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -13. -11. -10. -10. -7. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. -21. -22. -21. -19. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY