* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 20 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 20 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 20 26 24 22 24 20 18 11 13 13 4 4 SHEAR DIR 300 305 313 330 358 14 5 13 352 8 39 39 185 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 152 151 148 146 145 148 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 68 69 66 61 64 57 58 59 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -15 -14 -15 -16 -27 -22 -16 -14 -2 -6 -12 -4 200 MB DIV -6 -28 -15 -8 -23 -40 -44 -4 -10 -12 24 37 41 LAND (KM) 2574 2471 2369 2269 2169 1956 1695 1467 1277 1115 1047 1044 1097 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 132.9 134.0 135.0 136.1 137.1 139.4 142.2 145.0 147.8 150.8 154.0 157.0 159.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 38 40 40 39 37 34 38 40 46 44 42 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. -11. -8. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -14. -10. -5. -1. 2. 9. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY