* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052009 07/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 7 10 13 17 22 39 47 37 57 60 76 N/A SHEAR DIR 287 280 293 303 307 295 295 288 274 281 273 271 N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.7 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.6 23.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 98 93 91 91 90 89 88 94 97 98 101 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 49 45 43 36 37 32 25 25 28 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 8 9 9 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 33 12 11 18 -1 11 5 -1 -11 -28 -38 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 4 -10 -22 -26 -2 -6 -23 -22 -9 26 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1266 1339 1427 1514 1610 1778 1900 1927 1695 1493 1340 1152 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.6 24.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.4 125.0 126.5 127.9 129.3 131.8 134.3 136.6 139.0 141.2 143.0 145.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 9 9 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -5. -12. -21. -31. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -6. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -15. -24. -33. -45. -52. -62. -71. -78. -78. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 DOLORES 07/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 DOLORES 07/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY