* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 40 46 49 50 52 55 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 40 46 49 50 52 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 35 36 36 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 16 16 9 19 18 25 27 30 26 30 SHEAR DIR 1 6 354 353 2 336 330 312 328 333 335 333 343 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 124 127 131 132 133 138 142 150 152 147 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 125 128 132 132 134 139 144 151 150 139 133 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 59 59 59 64 66 65 62 62 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 42 46 49 21 20 -6 -19 -29 -40 -72 -80 200 MB DIV -18 -39 -46 -10 6 0 23 43 20 -12 -4 -19 -21 LAND (KM) 1354 1245 1151 1055 965 854 823 613 553 253 66 117 200 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.5 15.7 17.4 19.1 20.6 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 43.4 45.0 46.6 48.1 51.0 53.9 56.8 60.1 63.5 66.7 69.3 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 15 16 18 18 16 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 15 23 32 37 45 51 55 61 68 51 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 29. 30. 32. 35. 36. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY