* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 07/30/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 58 59 56 51 43 36 32 26 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 58 59 56 51 43 36 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 44 45 47 47 46 43 41 37 33 29 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 2 5 8 10 18 22 34 33 34 36 SHEAR DIR 199 230 179 156 196 240 241 220 217 229 236 232 234 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 140 137 140 143 140 137 136 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 69 68 66 63 62 61 59 55 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 6 0 -7 -10 -7 -10 -5 -4 -10 0 12 200 MB DIV 61 54 49 15 17 6 -4 23 8 29 30 70 47 LAND (KM) 1726 1581 1439 1306 1179 939 705 559 545 648 790 895 1069 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 142.1 143.6 145.1 146.5 149.3 152.3 155.0 157.4 159.9 162.5 165.0 167.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 29 28 33 44 37 15 17 28 26 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 21. 16. 8. 1. -3. -9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 07/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 74% is 6.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 07/30/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY