* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 07/31/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 60 61 60 58 51 45 41 36 29 22 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 60 61 60 58 51 45 41 36 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 61 61 60 57 53 48 44 41 37 34 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 8 7 14 21 21 20 30 34 35 42 SHEAR DIR 246 121 204 231 221 220 216 215 212 225 216 224 224 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 135 136 138 137 134 137 140 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 61 60 58 60 61 55 53 54 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 0 -1 0 3 -4 -1 -3 -14 -22 -16 -29 200 MB DIV 47 28 27 31 43 13 24 -1 48 49 12 0 34 LAND (KM) 1368 1219 1073 941 817 589 458 487 671 809 985 1196 1432 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.4 146.9 148.3 149.7 152.5 155.1 157.9 160.9 163.9 166.9 169.6 172.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 14 15 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 19 9 19 36 17 9 17 33 64 71 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 1. -5. -9. -14. -21. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY