* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 07/31/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 58 55 50 42 35 27 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 58 55 50 42 35 27 21 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 55 54 51 48 44 40 36 33 31 29 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 9 16 26 23 28 34 33 27 30 39 SHEAR DIR 254 223 225 221 209 210 215 217 230 229 244 257 254 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 138 139 135 133 136 140 142 143 144 147 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 57 58 55 57 55 52 49 50 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -2 1 7 12 1 5 -10 -24 -41 -38 -38 -37 200 MB DIV 19 20 23 18 20 23 0 27 16 1 -8 11 23 LAND (KM) 1058 930 808 688 568 422 434 599 732 917 1100 1379 1706 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 148.4 149.7 151.2 152.7 155.6 157.8 160.6 163.7 166.6 168.8 171.9 175.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 12 12 15 15 12 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 18 9 17 17 32 14 8 17 49 59 67 69 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -20. -28. -34. -38. -41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY