* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/03/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 25 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 25 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 27 30 28 28 26 32 31 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 223 231 237 228 244 226 221 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 138 140 143 144 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 64 62 61 62 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 6 6 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -25 -34 -45 -53 -57 -55 -60 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 19 20 47 44 28 41 48 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 687 777 864 911 978 1180 1433 1682 1927 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.5 162.8 164.2 165.6 168.5 171.7 174.5 177.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 37 38 41 23 66 74 61 73 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):271/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -9. -15. -18. -26. -29. -32. -35. -35. -34. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/03/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/03/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY