* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072009 08/03/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 50 53 49 47 38 32 28 24 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 50 53 49 47 38 32 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 40 37 34 30 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 18 20 16 15 15 13 8 11 13 18 14 19 20 SHEAR DIR 351 8 359 351 338 339 303 271 254 247 241 235 231 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.1 27.0 26.0 25.4 25.2 24.7 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 154 147 136 125 119 118 113 112 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 70 71 71 71 67 70 70 67 61 55 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 7 9 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 11 10 13 6 30 30 47 45 56 29 50 41 200 MB DIV 39 67 72 81 70 67 72 66 33 39 26 29 24 LAND (KM) 1039 1120 1141 1172 1222 1339 1465 1626 1826 2101 1876 1487 1109 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.6 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.3 114.6 116.1 117.5 120.6 123.6 126.7 129.9 133.3 136.9 140.6 144.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 34 42 45 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -3. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 23. 19. 17. 8. 2. -2. -6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 SEVEN 08/03/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 SEVEN 08/03/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY