* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 61 61 58 53 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 59 61 61 58 53 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 55 57 57 55 52 48 43 40 37 36 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 13 15 12 16 13 21 19 11 9 7 SHEAR DIR 358 6 345 341 344 355 359 17 359 21 6 337 296 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 147 144 137 131 127 126 126 125 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 71 71 70 70 68 67 67 59 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 4 0 -12 -11 5 6 2 -5 -27 -37 -32 200 MB DIV 54 55 60 53 57 55 42 59 23 15 13 9 -16 LAND (KM) 1160 1185 1221 1251 1277 1366 1504 1636 1772 1933 2117 2179 1986 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.1 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.4 118.4 119.3 120.2 122.2 124.3 126.3 128.2 130.2 132.3 134.3 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 34 28 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 13. 8. 2. -1. -5. -8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY