* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 100 92 84 70 60 48 39 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 108 100 92 84 70 60 48 39 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 108 99 90 82 67 58 50 45 39 34 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 13 8 8 6 6 4 17 19 31 30 25 21 SHEAR DIR 11 7 22 347 329 343 227 275 251 271 281 277 264 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 122 118 114 109 111 116 118 118 121 125 130 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 60 52 49 47 44 43 41 42 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 10 -5 -9 -18 -19 -9 -9 -4 0 3 9 0 200 MB DIV 22 24 -7 3 19 17 -6 -10 -16 -27 3 -24 -11 LAND (KM) 2241 2219 2136 2028 1922 1665 1392 1089 764 472 230 -13 180 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 19.8 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 133.9 134.6 135.6 136.5 138.9 141.5 144.4 147.5 150.3 152.6 155.1 157.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -17. -29. -40. -49. -55. -60. -63. -65. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -31. -45. -55. -67. -76. -87. -97.-102.-106. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY