* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 08/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 33 33 31 30 27 22 15 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 33 33 31 30 27 22 15 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 28 26 24 21 19 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 17 18 17 19 16 13 3 6 21 34 SHEAR DIR 297 294 288 280 282 290 314 325 344 276 229 207 217 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 148 144 138 132 124 118 112 107 98 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 67 66 62 62 57 58 51 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -31 -30 -36 -33 -38 -48 -49 -58 -48 -59 -32 -34 200 MB DIV 7 19 21 29 20 31 21 24 10 -1 19 15 31 LAND (KM) 1283 1326 1375 1414 1451 1529 1626 1707 1774 1867 1984 2070 2010 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.5 119.4 120.3 121.1 122.8 124.7 126.6 128.5 130.3 132.2 133.9 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 54 45 40 21 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. -3. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 08/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 08/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY