* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 39 41 44 45 47 48 47 46 45 42 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 39 41 44 45 47 48 47 46 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 35 34 32 31 30 30 31 30 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 17 15 12 13 5 4 4 4 13 15 SHEAR DIR 298 298 304 297 305 308 328 292 19 153 164 187 179 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 146 142 139 135 130 128 123 120 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 66 64 63 63 63 60 59 59 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -40 -37 -40 -40 -35 -36 -21 -17 -10 0 27 28 200 MB DIV 7 10 2 0 2 6 -31 -10 1 3 0 2 25 LAND (KM) 1445 1477 1513 1557 1607 1717 1819 1903 2024 2172 2121 1883 1645 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.8 121.5 122.4 123.3 125.1 127.0 128.8 130.7 132.7 134.8 137.0 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 47 43 36 17 11 11 9 6 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY