* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 37 40 45 44 44 43 40 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 37 40 45 44 44 43 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 37 38 38 37 34 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 3 8 5 8 11 14 16 25 34 32 SHEAR DIR 22 346 349 285 266 266 216 232 231 255 238 245 236 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 120 118 115 111 111 112 113 116 120 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 116 113 110 105 104 104 105 107 110 111 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 55 57 53 54 47 47 43 44 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 12 12 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 15 23 32 17 23 44 27 11 -8 -28 -54 200 MB DIV 16 22 29 35 12 -11 -5 -15 -8 -7 24 10 2 LAND (KM) 614 746 882 1011 1140 1388 1615 1835 2048 2279 2310 2340 2346 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.4 22.7 24.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 23.2 24.5 25.7 26.9 28.0 30.2 32.2 34.5 36.7 39.0 41.3 43.3 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 8 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 20. 19. 19. 18. 15. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)