* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 34 31 28 23 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 29 26 30 34 36 38 36 33 28 28 30 35 36 SHEAR DIR 287 285 280 267 266 276 276 282 272 267 251 257 253 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 113 114 118 121 125 128 129 130 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 43 41 37 34 35 34 26 31 30 34 34 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 12 11 10 7 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 6 6 5 15 19 20 24 26 31 19 21 0 200 MB DIV 6 18 0 -8 -10 -26 -18 -47 -6 -22 -6 -4 2 LAND (KM) 750 635 521 410 306 122 51 55 178 381 583 800 1025 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.7 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.0 150.1 151.3 152.4 154.9 157.2 159.4 161.5 163.5 165.4 167.4 169.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 16 8 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -30. -37. -45. -50. -55. -58. -59. -57. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY