* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 37 34 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 37 34 31 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 31 31 31 29 27 23 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 3 8 11 8 12 15 16 24 35 44 43 SHEAR DIR 301 324 277 242 255 220 222 216 234 236 239 244 246 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 119 116 114 110 111 112 113 116 120 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 114 111 108 104 104 104 105 106 108 106 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 60 61 56 55 51 52 51 52 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 7 18 14 22 41 38 21 -6 -20 -49 -90 200 MB DIV 34 46 42 21 4 -14 3 -16 -12 5 21 11 -1 LAND (KM) 700 821 949 1068 1188 1417 1650 1867 2086 2298 2355 2408 2487 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.9 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 24.0 25.2 26.3 27.4 28.4 30.4 32.6 34.9 37.1 39.2 41.0 42.3 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 3. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 9. 6. 0. -4. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)