* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 41 39 36 30 25 21 19 17 17 16 15 SHEAR (KT) 29 29 33 37 43 42 42 27 29 30 34 42 51 SHEAR DIR 285 284 268 267 264 275 277 274 270 270 258 257 250 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 115 116 118 121 125 128 128 130 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 42 40 38 39 36 35 30 34 33 38 40 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 1 11 14 11 22 25 26 25 22 16 2 200 MB DIV -10 -8 -8 -2 -20 -9 -44 -10 -30 -6 0 -13 -57 LAND (KM) 657 537 420 313 215 61 15 45 216 424 625 840 1070 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.9 151.1 152.3 153.4 155.5 157.6 159.8 161.9 163.9 165.8 167.8 169.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 10 9 26 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -30. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY