* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 33 35 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 33 35 35 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 21 21 21 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 13 19 19 13 19 24 17 13 4 3 11 11 14 SHEAR DIR 291 299 307 309 309 331 356 5 63 127 165 199 201 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 141 139 138 135 131 128 126 124 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 68 65 70 67 67 66 63 61 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -43 -43 -40 -30 -27 -17 -17 -4 13 34 37 44 200 MB DIV 7 -4 -12 5 13 1 7 0 -11 -29 -17 -2 4 LAND (KM) 1483 1531 1583 1630 1680 1797 1911 2023 2159 2181 1974 1765 1555 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.6 123.4 124.2 125.0 126.8 128.8 130.6 132.4 134.3 136.3 138.3 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 30 13 11 10 10 12 7 6 9 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY