* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 32 36 38 40 38 36 32 27 22 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 32 36 38 40 38 36 32 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 29 27 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 1 9 7 8 7 13 15 19 23 30 35 43 41 SHEAR DIR 32 230 238 257 238 214 207 209 223 237 245 242 250 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 126 122 119 116 116 118 120 120 120 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 120 117 113 110 110 111 112 111 108 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 65 60 57 55 56 48 47 43 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 12 11 12 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 10 18 9 19 28 45 60 49 11 -6 -47 -78 -109 200 MB DIV 39 33 25 21 7 20 16 3 7 14 14 0 -2 LAND (KM) 882 977 1076 1188 1302 1536 1817 2070 2245 2179 2213 2261 2240 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.6 23.0 24.2 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.5 29.5 31.6 34.2 36.8 39.4 41.8 43.7 44.8 45.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 3 4 6 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. 7. 2. -3. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%)