* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922009 08/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 31 36 41 45 55 61 65 67 68 67 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 31 36 41 45 55 61 65 67 68 67 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 36 42 46 52 57 62 65 68 70 SHEAR (KT) 0 2 8 9 7 8 8 7 6 11 17 29 27 SHEAR DIR 52 81 249 277 278 275 293 194 232 186 208 188 173 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 143 143 144 144 145 144 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.4 -52.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 72 74 69 66 63 65 68 72 71 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -17 -15 -8 11 24 40 36 37 35 27 48 35 200 MB DIV 41 52 36 17 25 22 13 62 97 122 33 84 -57 LAND (KM) 1396 1433 1476 1521 1568 1668 1796 1928 2042 2126 2194 2253 2316 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 169.0 169.9 170.7 171.4 172.1 173.5 175.0 176.6 178.0 179.1 180.0 180.9 181.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 60 60 59 63 69 62 60 60 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 30. 36. 40. 42. 43. 42. 41. 40. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922009 INVEST 08/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922009 INVEST 08/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY