* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 30 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 36 43 44 46 41 35 36 37 45 35 47 16 SHEAR DIR 264 265 268 275 278 280 283 271 290 275 270 261 292 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 118 119 120 124 128 130 130 131 133 137 140 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 37 39 37 38 35 32 37 39 38 43 50 52 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 11 12 -2 2 10 7 2 -2 -6 -4 -12 200 MB DIV -10 -4 -17 -21 -30 -46 -12 -14 -9 7 17 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 445 344 247 169 105 15 85 131 329 529 720 898 1084 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 24.4 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.8 152.8 153.8 154.7 156.8 159.0 161.0 163.0 164.9 166.7 168.2 169.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 12 10 16 18 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -29. -36. -40. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -33. -43. -49. -56. -58. -60. -54. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY