* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 31 35 36 38 37 36 35 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 31 35 36 38 37 36 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 28 29 31 33 32 31 30 SHEAR (KT) 18 14 12 13 15 9 9 10 10 19 15 20 16 SHEAR DIR 307 317 319 322 326 7 48 116 153 181 197 192 201 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 141 142 141 137 132 130 128 124 123 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 66 64 62 60 56 52 55 58 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -34 -24 -17 -14 -11 -16 -4 7 31 30 51 60 200 MB DIV -5 0 12 -8 0 0 -3 -23 -18 -6 19 28 24 LAND (KM) 1613 1669 1727 1780 1828 1926 2069 2212 2171 1993 1806 1599 1372 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.6 125.4 126.2 127.0 128.8 130.8 132.7 134.5 136.2 138.0 140.0 142.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 17 22 25 27 19 23 18 16 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY